江苏省应用数学（中国矿业大学）中心系列学术报告
报告题目：Predicting the Speed of Epidemics Spreading in Networks
报告专家：Tim Rogers 英国巴斯大学教授
报告时间：2026年9月23日8:00-12:00
报告地点：数学学院A321
报告摘要：Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas, and infectious diseases to now spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like processes, there is a need to predict the speed of a particular contagion in a particular network, and to distinguish between nodes that are more likely to become infected sooner or later during an outbreak. Here, we study these quantities using a message-passing approach to derive simple and effective predictions that are validated against epidemic simulations on a variety of real-world networks with good agreement. In addition to individualized predictions for different nodes, we find an overall sudden transition from low density to almost full network saturation as the contagion progresses in time. Our theory is developed and explained in the setting of simple contagions on treelike networks, but we are also able to show how the method extends remarkably well to complex contagions and highly clustered networks.
Tim Rogers教授，英国巴斯大学数理科学系主任。Tim Rogers教授长期从事网络动力学以及生态系统稳定性的研究，在 Science、Nature Physics、Nature Communications、PNAS、Physical Review Letters等国际权威期刊发表论文70余篇，H指数为 22。承担英国皇家学会（Royal Society）、工程与物理科学研究委员会（EPSRC）、伦敦数学学会（LMS）科研项目十余项，并担任 《Royal Society Open Science》编辑。因其在生物数学中的原创性贡献，获英国应用数学学会颁发的跨学科研究奖。